montalk wrote:Also, these multiple possibilities are not mutually exclusive - that someone can hear voices because he's schizophrenic and has brain abnormalities doesn't exclude that possiblity that another hears voices because he's been implanted as part of some government mind control project. So there is no single counter-example that can rule out one or the other if they are parallel possibilities with simultaneous validity rather than contradictory.
Hi, Tom, I agree with you. It ´s perfectly possible there exists a government mind control project.
This is the point, here I would like to bring attention to a very important issue that maybe you, in the USA, are not aware because you have no external frame of reference.
The fact is that in USA and Europe, mainly in England (I don ´t know another european countries) you citizens are being heavily targeted and bombed with massive information discharge from your media (TV, movies, I guess also the radio and books) on this topics, specially the alien paradigm in many flavours: the demonic (Orion reptiles and Grey partners, the lightsider (waves of love for everyone), the conspiracy (with multiples branches and with several players accusing each other), the armageddon and cataclysmic or nuclear war end of the world, the ascension due to an increase in the soul ´s frequency vibration, etc.
I live in South America and I must tell you that, besides your Hollywood moves, Fox movies and series and occasionally a Discovery Channel UFO report, here we do not see anything of this stuff. Moreover, everything I have read of this stuff I found in web sites from your country or England.
What I am trying to tell you is that the answers may be found in culture; for some reasons all this elements are being implanted in your culture, but is far from being a worldwide phenomena. Sure your political elite is deeply involved and I would not doubt the goal is simple: control and domination. Here in South America they have another strategy, poverty and starvation, but the elite is behind all this politics, an interrelated power elite of worldwide dimensions.
Again I want to point that maybe the alien stuff has no underlying reality, it is used by the elite because of some advantages I don ´t know exactly, but I guess may be related to your highly technological civilization. No doubt the domination plan is worldwide and the tactics are diverse according with the plans the elite has made.
Astonishing, where I live I can hardly find one known single subjetc reporting an experience akin with those you report as common, whether it be entities possesion or sight, alien abductions, implants, etc. Honestly not even one of my friends, family or acquaintances has ever had an experience like this.
All this support my theory: massive mind control via suggestion and hypnosis as a power elite strategy. They have done this before and enjoyed more than ten centuries of absolute power and they try to do it again. They change the envelope, but the contents is the same, evil creatures and entities that posses human mind and spirit. The main risk of such an estrategy is the possibilty of a mass psychosis due to human mind malleability and fragility.
montalk wrote:If you limit yourself to the social, psychological, and political reality, then naturally you exclude all the evidence that only a predatory alien factor can account for. It's like saying that the Special Theory of Relativity is unnecessary to explain the motion of cars and airplanes - definitely, but that would exclude the relativistic effects that only come with high speed phenomena not commonly observed. This requires expanding your observations beyond the old territory.
By this I mean accounting for synchronicities beyond probability, eyewitness UFO sightings, abduction evidence including removed implants, scoop marks, hairline scars, etc..., memories recalled without hypnosis, etc... Not to mention ancient evidence of technology beyond the capability of man, universal attributes in religions and myths the world over concerning nonhuman beings seeding societies, and so on. The list is large.
You are right, but if you include spiritual reality you have competing approaches that could not be ruled out easily. Among them you have Plotinus and Nagarjüna with their mystical and phylosofical writings and speculations, you have the Perenne Phylosophy, you have the Non Dual Eastern phylosophies; none of them leads you to the predatory alien paradigm.
montalk wrote:Like with abductions - you can explain away the scoop mark as a spider bite, the abduction memory as a bad dream, the children mentioning what they saw as mere fantasy, and the UFO sightings in the area as swamp gas reflecting off of venus. But that all these events happened together on the same night cannot be refuted so easily because the individual probabilities of each item being wrong are multiplied together to give an overall TINY probability that no abduction happened. In other words, the total probability is not equal to the sum of the individual probabilities (which is reductionism falsely applied) but rather their product.
Example:
Probability that scoop mark is not due to abduction: .1
Probability that ... etc.. : .1
Probability that ... etc.. : .2
Probability that ... etc.. : .4
Sum (false method) = .8 that abduction did not happen.
Product (correct method) = .0008 that abduction did not happen.
You are talking of joint probability and you are right, the joint probability is the product of the marginals. However, at this points i have some objections:
1)The value you give to the marginals, for example:
Probability that scoop mark is not due to abduction: .1; well, if you work with objective probabilities, I mean if you use classical statistical methods, due to the law of large numbers, you would have to collect a big sample of cases of people with scoop marks and estimate its origin, and sure you will find that the probability that it is not due to abduction is nearly 100 %. There are millions of wasps, bees, spiders, scorpions and many other insects. The same analysis could be done to the other events and you will find almost 100% probable that is not an abduction or UFO sighting. If you multiplie this probabilities you will find a very high probability of this not being due to alien. But, here you cant ´t multiply, because the events are related.
2) This is an example of conditional probabilities because the events are related each other and the probability of one of them isolated is affected by the ocurrence of other.
Here you have an strange effect, you can have a very high value of a conditional probability and very low values of the marginal and joint probabilities associated.
Example: A) scoop mark is DUE to abduction (marginal)
B) the abduction memory correspond to a REAL ABDUCTION (marginal)
The conditional probability P(A/B), (scoop mark DUE to abduction given and abduction memory is a REAL ABDUCTION) is undoubtly very high, but P(A) and P(B), marginals and P(A.B),joint, can be very low.
P(A/B) = P(A.B)/P(B) if P(A/B) = .99, you can have P(A.B) = .0099 and P(B) = .01.
As you can see this is far from proving the alien origin of this two related events. Statistically is very difficult to prove such an hypothesis, unless you decide to use a Bayesian aproach, which means assign your own subjective probabilities to an event; this is similar to a personal decision to believe in something.
It ´s not my intention to promote an endless debate, but I want to show that there really are another approaches and answers available to explain the same phenomena and a reasonable doubt. Ultimately, to embrace one view or another is a personal issue, but no one can claim absolute objectivity.
But, as I have discovered, what is real is what you decide is real, where you put your beliefs.