Topic: financial crash

it has been great to discover this website.
I apologize in advance for my written mistakes; english it is not my first language.
so this is my idea: I have read a few books already, about the mayan civilitazion
that great culture that has predicted many events till now.
In their calendars, they stated that a financial colapse and stock market crash
would be very plausible in november 2007, or a few months before that, not after.
so, what do you think?

Re: financial crash

I'm hoping it will not come that soon, but it actually should have happened already.  Nice to meet you, ritus.

Re: financial crash

What is everyones plans when this crash comes around? Or if no crash, western society becomes too unbearable to live in. What are we going to do? I've pondered this for a while and had a fantasy of leaving for south america, travelling around on a horse like Harmonica or Preacher (any fan of westerns should recognise these names). If anyone here wants to join me they are welcome, since I'll probably get a little lonely travelling alone, as it appears I will be. And what about conditions in S.A, are they any better? I'd like to live like a king on 1 pound a day and if it's possible I'll save up and live like a king for the rest of my days. I'll miss some luxuries but that's a small price to pay for not being choked to death by a sick society. I think it's possible. Definately possible. Buy up all the gold and silver. We could start a town with our profits. Ayahuasca could be the shaman, Barefoot the doctor, and anyone else with skills can help out too. I've no idea what I'd do. Maybe be a lumber jack so that titmouse can make me some neat shelves.

"Violence solves everything. If it's not solving your problems, you aren't using enough of it."

Re: financial crash

Hi ritus,

First off, your english is excellent.

The question is definetely when, not if.
Like Soloflecks, I am surprised it has not happened already.

I have been gently warning some friends of mine who own stocks and/or bonds to consider getting out for a few years now.

Same goes for the 401K scam. Even though the window for doing it is getting narrower, and there are substantial penalties involved, I think it wise to find a more durable form of wealth.

Not even sure about gold, it has in the past been outlawed for use as currency. Nasty!

It's not surprising that many of these friends take me less seriously as time goes by, but at the same time their stakes are growing larger.

Like Mahatma stated, eventually many of us will find our home country unlivable, crash or not.

I have heard good things about The
Philippines.

Pictus,
if you are around, how is Brazil?

"I hate dreaming. because when you want to sleep, you want to sleep. Dreaming is work. Next thing you know I have to build a go-kart with my ex landlord"
-The late Mitch Hedberg

Re: financial crash

I am here in my hideout in the mountains lol

Brazil is not good, there is any good place in these troubled times?
I hope that the current ignorant thief president do not be reelected.
Brazil is governed by very low QI blind thieves, low breed OPs for sure...
The dark forces are ruling this world like there is no tomorrow, the hell gate is wide open...

A friend was in Chile and like it a lot, much better living than here...
What about New Zealand ?

Bye, Pictus

--------------------
http://pictus.co.nr

Re: financial crash

Oddly enough, when I was doing research on being an ex-pat, New Zealand was one of the places that came to mind.

I too think that a crash is coming, it is just hard to say when. If you assume that the PTB arrange these things, when would be a time that they would like? If they are really pissed at W then right before the next election cycle, as in winter, 2007 would be a good time.

Something to keep in mind is when the crash happens, it will spread world wide quickly.

Watch gold prices as the rich like to buy gold as a safety net.

When the stuff hits the fan, follow your insticts. Your high self will guide you to the safest spot.

WizardT

7

Re: financial crash

I read that another economic boom will probably happen between 2006 and 2010. If this is the case then wouldn't gold and silver go down in value? Maybe the right time to buy tons of gold and silver is when this happens. Generally, from what I understand, when the economy is doing good, the value of gold and silver go down. This is due to more money being channeled towards other things.

Also, I have a question about selling gold and silver. Once I have the gold and silver in my posession and I want to sell it, how do I?

Hey Mahatma, I'd gladly go down to South America with you if the crash happens assuming a better plan doesn't come up. It actually sounds like a good idea.

Re: financial crash

Bounce wrote:

Also, I have a question about selling gold and silver. Once I have the gold and silver in my posession and I want to sell it, how do I?

Bounce,

I don't claim to be an expert on this subject but I have been researching it quite a bit lately.  I'm not sure if you mean taking coins to a coin dealer or ingots to a metallurgist, but my take on the discussions here about gold and silver has been that people are buying them with the idea of using them as money or bartering power after an economic collapse.  At least I think that's what I've been doing personally.  In that case I'm not sure there is any clear cut answer, it would depend on how the new economy formed.  It's acually a really good question.  Anyone else have any ideas?

9

Re: financial crash

I plan on buying gold and silver coins. I'm not sure when the right time to buy them is though. Will gold and silver continue to increase in value? In Robert Kiyosaki's book, "Prophecy: Why the World's Biggest Stock Market Crash in History is Still Coming... and How You Can Prepare and Profit From It!!!", he says there is most likely going to buy another economic boom between 2006 and 2010. Gold and silver will go down in value if this happens. If anyone knows why an economic boom is supposed to happen soon, let me know why. smile I would like to just buy as much gold and silver as I can right now, but if it will be cheaper in the near future before the collapse happens, then that would be the way to go.

10 (edited by wandering1 2006-07-21 00:24:07)

Re: financial crash

I think that an economic crash/discontinuity is coming within the next couple years.  Late 2007 into 2008 is one estimate for when this might really get going (of course it could be sooner than that).

I think that there have been boom times for some mainstream sectors of the business economy for the last 20 years or so in the United States.   After this period of expansion, I think that there will be a contraction.

Re: financial crash

What is this claim of a boom based on?  Our recent boom was based entirely on the real estate bubble, i.e. credit.  As peoples houses went up in value, they cashed in with home equity loans.  If you factor out debt, our economy has actually been shrinking since the 90's.  Since the housing bubble seems to be losing steam, and there is nothing to pick up the slack (we exported all our productive capacity in the race for globalization) what exactly is supposed to be driving the economy?  Or does RK expect the housing bubble to reemerge and pick up steam in the next 4 years?  That seems a little far fetched to me.

seeker of truth

follow no path
all paths lead where

truth is here

E.E. Cummings

12

Re: financial crash

Honestly, I do not know what this economic boom is based off of, but I am determined to find out. I saw a book on it at a local bookstore. I'll check it out and tell you guys what I find out. I should have enough time for that this weekend.

13 (edited by quantumsurfer 2006-07-22 22:32:32)

Re: financial crash

From everything I have read in the last few years gold and silver prices are manipulated as much as any other currency, personally I feel that no matter where you live if economies puke world wide then gold and silver would be useless to the average Joe trying to eat or maintain some shelter of some sort. It seems blazingly obvious to me of late that the PTB are seriously looking to make all countries third world countries and bankrupt the masses permanantly, at least it looks like the road we're being steered down, I could be wrong and hoping I am, it just "feels" like this, and I have finally learned to listen to what I feel rather than intellectualize everything.

You could offer me an ingot, or piece of silver, but if I was cold or hungry I would laugh. To most who may be in this position Im thinking self sufficient food growers and land owners lucky enough not to lose thier land will have to fight off those stealing off them to survive, that is if we ever get to this type of situation. As a mother of 2 and devoted wife of all three who believe nothing of the sorts could or ever would happen, and who plod along oblivious to all we discuss in this and other forums, Im not sure what I would do, especially with my illness. I think of it sometimes and say "if I had the means...I would do <insert everything I thought of here> and this could ensure all of our survival" but alas, Im not in a position to do a damned thing but love my family and tell myself what was said by another in a reply... "we will know what to do when the time comes." I just figure hot commodities for most will be what goes on the back, feet, butt and in the belly. Heavy topic, with such a discussion how could any answer or thought be simplified anyway?

Re: financial crash

Check out Macroeconomics. It's all about the study of economies.
I'm studying it this semester. smile

"The universe is on fire with wonder, beauty, and ecstasy." - From the Undines to Humanity

Re: financial crash

This worldwide system of financial slavery has to end, but it won't go quietly.  As for crashes, they're quite beneficial for the elite especially when they have foreknowledge of what's going down.  That's how they jumpstart their fortunes periodically.  One can never have enough billions, you know.

Here's what someone in Argentina experienced after the financial crash there:
(Sorry for the length.  It's on a word doc in my pc.)

THOUGHTS ON URBAN SURVIVAL
Life in Post-Collapse Argentina, Oct. 2005

My brother visited Argentina a few weeks ago. He’s been living in Spain for a few years now. Within the first week, he got sick, some kind of strong flu, even though the climate isn’t that cold and he took care of himself. Without a doubt he got sick because there are lots of new viruses in my country that can’t be found in 1st world countries. The misery and famine lead us to a situation where, even though you have food, shelter and health care, most others don’t, and therefore they get sick and spread the diseases all over the region.

What got me started on this post is the fact that I actually saw this coming, and posted on the subject here at Frugal’s, [frugalsquirrels.com] months before the new viruses spread over the country and the news started talking about this new health emergency, which proves that talking, thinking and sharing ideas with like-minded people (you guys), does help me to see things coming and prepare for them with enough time. So I started thinking about several issues, what I learned (either the hard way or thanks to this forum) after all these years of living in a collapsed country that is trying to get out an economical disaster and everything that comes along with it. Though my English is limited, I hope I’m able to transmit the main ideas and concepts, giving you a better image of what you may have to deal with some day, if the economy collapses in your country. Here is what I have so far:

URBAN OR COUNTRY?
Someone once asked me how did those that live in the country fare. If they were better off than city dwellers. As always there are no simple answers. Wish I could say country good, city bad, but I can’t, because if I have to be completely honest, and I intend to be so, there are some issues that have to be analyzed, especially security. Of course those that live in the country and have some land and animals were better prepared food-wise. No need to have several acres full of crops. A few fruit trees, some animals, such as chickens, cows and rabbits, and a small orchard were enough to be light years ahead of those in the cities. Chickens, eggs and rabbits would provide the proteins, a cow or two for milk and cheese, some vegetables and fruit plants covered the vegetable diet,  some eggs or a rabbit could be traded for flour to make bread and pasta or sugar and salt.

Of course that there are exceptions, for example, some provinces up north have a desert climate, and it almost never rains. It is almost impossible to live off the land, and animals require food and water you have to buy. Those guys had it bad; no wonder the northern provinces suffer the most in my country. Those that live in cities, well they have to manage as they can. Since food prices went up about 200%-300%. People would cut expenses wherever they could so they could buy food. Some ate whatever they could; they hunted birds or ate street dogs and cats, others starved. When it comes to food, cities suck in a crisis. It is usually the lack of food or the impossibility to acquire it that starts the rioting and looting when TSHTF.

When it comes to security things get even more complicated. Forget about shooting those that mean you harm from 300 yards away with your MBR [main battle rifle]. Leave that notion to armchair commandos and 12 year old kids that pretend to be grown ups on the internet.

Some facts:

1) Those that want to harm you/steal from you don’t come with a pirate flag waving over their heads.

2) Neither do they start shooting at you 200 yards away.

3) They won’t come riding loud bikes or dressed with their orange, convict just escaped from prison jump suits, so that you can identify them the better. Nor do they all wear chains around their necks and leather jackets. If I had a dollar for each time a person that got robbed told me “They looked like NORMAL people, dressed better than we are” , honestly, I would have enough money for a nice gun. There are exceptions, but don’t expect them to dress like in the movies.

4) A man with a wife and two or three kids can’t set up a watch. I don’t care if you are SEAL, SWAT or John Freaking Rambo, no 6th sense is going to tell you that there is a guy pointing a gun at your back when you are trying to fix the water pump that just broke, or carrying a big heavy bag of dried beans you bought that morning.

The best alarm system anyone can have on a farm are dogs. But dogs can get killed and poisoned. A friend of mine had all four dogs poisoned on his farm one night, they all died. After all these years I learned that even though the person that lives out in the country is safer when it comes to small time robberies, that same person is more exposed to extremely violent home robberies. Criminals know that they are isolated and their feeling of invulnerability is boosted. When they assault a country home or farm, they will usually stay there for hours or days torturing the owners. I heard it all: women and children getting raped, people tied to the beds and tortured with electricity, beatings, burned with acetylene torches. Big cities aren’t much safer for the survivalist that decides to stay in the city. He will have to face express kidnappings, robberies, and pretty much risking getting shot for what’s in his pockets or even his clothes.

So, where to go? The concrete jungle is dangerous and so is living away from it all, on your own. The solution is to stay away from the cities but in groups, either by living in a small town-community or sub division, or if you have friends or family that think as you do, form your own small community. Some may think that having neighbors within “shouting”  distance means losing your privacy and freedom, but it’s a price that you have to pay if you want to have someone to help you if you ever need it. To those that believe that they will never need help from anyone because they will always have their rifle at hand, checking the horizon with their scope every five minutes and a first aid kit on their back packs at all times…. Grow up.

SERVICES
What ever sort of scenario you are dealing with, services are more than likely to either suffer in quality or disappear all together. Think ahead of time; analyze possible SHTF scenarios and which service should be affected by it in your area. Think about the most likely scenario but also think outside the box. What’s more likely? A tornado? But a terrorist attack isn’t as crazy as you though it would be a few years ago, is it?
Also analyze the consequences of those services going down. If there is no power then you need to do something about all that meat you have in the fridge, you can dry it or can it. Think about the supplies you would need for these tasks before you actually need them. You have a complete guide on how to prepare the meat on you computer… how will you get it out of there if there is no power? Print everything that you consider important.

WATER
No one can last too long without water. The urban survivalist may find that the water is of poor quality, in which case he can make good use of a water filter, or that there is no water available at all. When this happens, a large city were millions live will run out of bottled water within minutes. In my case, tap water isn’t very good. I can see black little particles and some other stuff that looks like dead algae. Taste isn’t that bad. Not good but I know that there are parts of the country where it is much worse. To be honest, a high percentage of the country has no potable water at all.

If you can build a well, do so, set it as your top of the list priority as a survivalist.
Water comes before firearms, medicines and even food. Save as much water as you can. Use plastic bottles, refill soda bottles and place them in a cool place, preferably inside a black garbage bag to protect it from sun light. The water will pick some plastic taste after a few months, but water that tastes a little like plastic is far way better than no water at all. What ever the kind of SHTF scenario you are dealing with, water will suffer. In my case the economical crash created problems with the water company, that reduces the maintenance and quality in order to reduce costs and keep their income in spite of the high prices they have to pay for supplies and equipment, most of which comes from abroad, and after the 2001 crash, costs 3 times more. As always, the little guy gets to pay for it. Same would go for floods or chemical or biological attacks. Water requires delicate care and it will suffer when TSHTF in one way or another. In this case, when you still have tap water, a quality filter is in order, as well as a pump if you can have one. A manual pump would be ideal as well if possible. Estimate that you need a approximately a gallon per person per day. Try to have at least two-four weeks worth of water. More would be preferable.

POWER
I spent WAY to much time without power for my own taste. Power has always been a problem in my country, even before the 2001 crisis. The real problem starts when you spend more than just a few hours without light. Just after the SHTF in 2001 half the country went without power for 3 days. Buenos Aires was one big dark grave. People got caught on elevators, food rots; hospitals that only had a few hours worth of fuel for their generators ran out of power. Without power, days get to be a lot shorter. Once the sun sets there is not much you can do. I read under candle light and flashlight light and your head starts to hurt after a while. You can work around the house a little bit but only as long as you don’t need power tools. Crime also increases once the lights go out, so whenever you have to go somewhere in a black out, carry the flashlight on one hand and a handgun on the other.

Summarizing, being in a city without light turn to be depressing after a while. I spent my share of nights, alone, listening to the radio, eating canned food and cleaning my guns under the light of my LED head lamp. Then I got married, had a son, and found out that when you have loved ones around you black outs are not as bad. The point is that family helps morale on these situations.

A note on flashlights. Have two or three head LED lights. They are not expensive and are worth their weight in gold. A powerful flashlight is necessary, something like a big Maglite or better yet a SureFire, especially when you have to check your property for intruders. But for more mundane stuff like preparing food, going to the toilet or doing stuff around the house, the LED headlamp is priceless. Try washing the dishes on the dark while holding a 60 lumen flashlight on one hand and you’ll know what I mean. LEDs also have the advantage of lasting for almost an entire week of continuous use and the light bulb lasts forever. Rechargeable batteries are a must or else you’ll end up broke if lights go out often. Have a healthy amount of spare quality batteries and try to standardize as much as you can. I have 12 Samsung NM 2500Mh AA and 8 AAA 800mh for the headlamps. I use D cell plastic adaptors in order to use AA batteries on my 3 D cell Maglite. This turned out to work quite well, better than I expected. I also keep about 2 or 3 packs of regular, Duracell batteries just in case. These are supposed to expire around 2012, so I can forget about them until I need them. Rechargeable NM batteries have the disadvantage of loosing power after a period of time, so keep regular batteries as well and check the rechargeable ones every once in a while.

After all these years of problems with power, what two items I would love to have?

1) The obvious. A generator. I carried my fridge food to my parent’s house way to many times on the past. Too bad I can’t afford one right now.

2) A battery charger that has both solar panel and a small crank. They are not available here. I saw that they are relatively inexpensive in the USA. Do yourself a favor and get one or two of these. Even if they don’t charge as well as regular ones, I’m sure it will put out enough power to charge batteries for LED lamps at least.

GAS (Propane and natural gas)
Gas has decreased in quality as well, there is little gas. Try to have an electric oven in case you have to do without it. If both electricity and gas go down, one of those camping stoves can work as well, if you keep a good supply of gas cans. The ones that work with liquid fuel seem to be better on the long run, since they can use different types of fuel.  You can only store a limited amount of compressed gas and once you ran out of it, you are on your own if stores are closed of they sold them out. Anyway, a city that goes without gas and light for more than two weeks is a death trap, get out of there before it’s too late.

A DIFFERENT MENTALITY.

I was watching the People & Art channel with my wife the other night. It was a show where they film a couple for a given period of time and some people vote on who is the one with the worst habits, the one they find more annoying. We were in our bed, and this is when I usually fall asleep but since the guy was a firearms police instructor I was interested and managed to stay awake. At one point the guy’s wife said that she found annoying that her husband spent 500 dollars a month on beauty products for himself. 500 USD on facial cream, special shampoo and conditioner, as well as having his nails polished! If you are that guy and happen to be reading this, or if you know him, I’m sorry, but what an idiot!! “500 USD, that’s a small generator or a gun and a few boxes of ammo”  I told my wife. “That’s two months worth of food”  she said. We were each thinking of a practical use for that money, the money this guy was practically throwing away. Once the SHTF, money is no longer measured in money, but you start seeing it as the necessary goods it can buy. Stuff like food, medicine, gas, or the private medical service bill. To me, spending 500 dollars on beauty products, and to make it worse, on a guy? That’s simply not acceptable. The way I see it, someone with that mentality can’t survive a week without a credit card, no use in even considering a SHTF scenario.
And this guy is a firearms instructor?… probably the kind of guy that will say that a handgun is only used to fight his way to his rifle… and his facial night cream…

Once you experience the lack of stuff you took for granted, like food , medicines, your set of priorities change all of a sudden. For example, I had two wisdom teeth removed last year. On both occasions I was prescribed with antibiotics and strong Ibuprofen for the pain. I took the antibiotics (though I did buy two boxes with the same prescription just to keep one box just in case) but I didn’t use the Ibuprofen, I added it to my pile of medicines. Why? Because medicines are not always available and I’m not sure if they will be available in the future. Sure, it hurt like hell, but pain alone isn’t going to kill you, so I sucked it up. Good for building up character if you ask me.

Make sacrifices so as to ensure a better future, that’s the mentality you should have if you want to be prepared. There’s stuff that is “nice to have”  that has to be sacrificed to get the indispensable stuff. There’s stuff that is not “basic need stuff”  but it’s also important in one way or another. My wife goes to the hairdresser once every month or two. It’s not life or death, but it does make her feel better and it boosts her morale.
I buy a game for the Xbox or a movie to watch with my wife every once in awhile, just to relax. 7 or 10 dollars a month are not going to burn a hole in my pocket. Addictions such as alcohol, drugs or even cigarettes should be avoided by the survivalist. They are bad for your health; cost a lot of money that could be much better spent, and create an addiction to something that may not be available in the future. Who will have to tolerate your grouchy mood when your brand of smokes is no longer imported after TSHTF?