Stock Market

For those interested, the stock market is in a very bad technical position and may be about to collapse.

Below is a funny, but very deep comment, might be a bit technical for some but the fundamental ideas are there.

For those at the low vibratory level still (as myself) do yourslef a favour by not buying any stock or mutual funds and consider selling some profits you may have. This may accelerate very badly.

Hope it helps and wishing you all well

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From Daily Reckoning, May 10, 2004:

Ursus interruptus. Ursus recommensus.

The financial press is full of the usual gibberish. What
company is beating expectations... which mutual fund is
outperforming its sector... how Alan Greenspan is managing
the economy...

No one seems to have noticed that Phase II of the Great
Bear Market seems to have gotten underway...

Friday's drop in the Dow was the least of it. The stock
market was in broad, general retreat, with more than 10
stocks going down for every one on the rise.

Now, the Dow sinks back towards 10,000... and no one seems
to notice. The two leading companies of Greenspan's credit
bubble - Fannie Mae, which lent the money... and Wal-Mart,
which helped consumers spend it - are headed down. And
according to Richard Russell, the 'Hindenburg Omen' is
still operative... Wall Street is in 'potential crash
mode.'

Of course, this will not be the first time you've heard us
say so. We've been a little early before... and may be
again.

Still some things are worth expecting all the time, even if
they never happen. If you are in bed with your mistress,
for example, it is probably a good idea to expect your wife
to come through the door at any moment. Likewise, when
you're holding a bevy of very expensive stocks... you might
as well believe that every day is the last day of the bull
market.

You will recall that the first 'break' in the bull market
happened just 4 years ago. But after a quarter century of
rising prices, people were not ready to give up the dream
of getting something for nothing. They had swallowed Wall
Street's sales pitch: they believed they were 'investors,'
not gamblers. And they thought that getting something for
nothing was not only exactly what they wanted, but what
they deserved. Buy a well-diversified group of stocks, they
told each other, hold for the long term... and somehow -
for some reason they could not explain - they would get
rich.

Of course, it is bunk. Nonsense. Folderol. Flim flam. A
scam. The old false shuffle.

Stocks do not go up over the long run; they go nowhere. Up.
Down. Sideways. Nowhere.

There is no reason a dollar's worth of earnings should be
worth more in the future than it was in the past. Nor will
the average company be more valuable. Instead, it will go
out of business. Over time, everything degrades, decays and
fades away. Sooner or later, all businesses become
defunct... and every stock becomes worthless.

Real investors buy companies, not stocks. As Buffett puts
it, they buy good companies at a "fair" price. The little
guys - the lumpeninvestoriat - shop for 'bargains' and only
buy when there are none. That is, they only come into the
market at the worst possible time... after the bull market
is well advanced. And then, they don't look for good
companies... they look for stocks they think will go up.

The lumps buy stocks timidly at first. They feel proud to
be in the game with Soros, Buffett, and other pros. Then,
as more and more of their fellows come in, their confidence
mounts. Soon, they are buying stocks brazenly, wantonly...
with neither a clue nor a prayer. Real investors,
meanwhile, are selling.

Eventually, the lumps will be knocked out or squeezed out
of their positions; then, they will forswear stocks for
another quarter century! But after 25 years of rising stock
prices, who believes it?

So, when the break came in 2000, stock buyers weren't ready
to give up. The bear market remained a work in progress...
a hesitation... ursus interruptus...

'Investors' abandoned the Nasdaq, but not the stock market.
They merely moved to 'safer' sectors. And then, after a
suitable interval of mourning for their beloved tech
stocks, they were ready for another fling. For thousands of
investors, Google comes along at just the right time, just
when they were looking for a little excitement.

The AOL/Time Warner coupling marked the first break...
Google's public offering could very well spice up the
second.

Between the first break and the second was the most
aggressive E-Z credit campaign the world has ever seen, the
biggest turnaround in federal finances, and the largest
run-up in debt. We only mention it to round out the
picture. You have heard us discuss these things so often
that you must be getting tired of it.

Still, the trillions in borrowing and spending looked like
'growth' to economists; they couldn't tell the difference.
The newspapers were able to print cheery headlines.
Companies were able to report higher profits. And the
'recovery' seemed like a done deal.

Even the employment numbers, stubbornly negative, finally
seemed to be improving. Except, if you bothered to look at
them, you noticed that people were actually working fewer
hours and earning less money. Wal-Mart's sales figures
showed spending weakening by the end of the month; the
obvious inference: people were running out of money. And
all over the Anglo-Saxon world, people were going bankrupt
at the fastest rates in history; they were being crushed
under the weight of Greenspan's debt!

How can companies make money when their customers are going
bust? How can they defend their profit margins when the
Chinese are making things at half the price? How can stocks
go up when everyone who ever wanted them already has more
than he needs? How long will the lumps continue to believe
in 'stocks for the long haul?'

These answers to these... and so many other exciting
questions... will surely be revealed as Phase II of the
Great Bear Market gets underway.