1 (edited by wandering1 2004-05-17 05:24:13)

Topic: Peak Oil

I have recently become more aware of the issue "peak oil" from listening to radio shows and reading on the Internet.  The concept of "peak oil" refers to an oil extraction curve which roughly resembles a bell curve.  The peak is the top of the curve where oil extraction is at a mid-way point in terms of how much supply is left. 

To paraphrase Matt Savinar, (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html): "On the upslope of the curve, production costs tend to be significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out. Put simply: oil tends to be plentiful and cheap on the upslope, scarce and expensive on the downslope."

Some of the proponents of the idea of peak oil are Matt Savinar, Michael Ruppert (publisher and editor of "From the Wilderness"), and Richard Heinberg (author of "The Party's Over" and the "MuseLetter" http://www.museletter.com/recent-issues.html).  In my opinion, they are suggesting that the global peak oil point is most likely in a range which goes from a couple years in the past to within the next few years in the future.

Given that global demand is increasing and global supply is decreasing, one can use a simple model of supply and demand, and suggest that price will increase as supply decreases and demand increases.

The price of oil affects many other fundamental prices such as transportation and food. Basically, a rising oil price may be a major trigger which may lead to significant economic dislocation. 

According to the following source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
the average world crude oil price from 1947-2003 (in 2000 dollars) was $21 per barrel.  The maximum price in the period 1947-2003 was about $58 per barrel which occurred in approximately 1981. 

According to the same site, the price of a barrel of oil (NYMEX crude) on May 14, 2004 was $41.38 and about a year ago on May 1, 2003, it was $26.  There has been a significant price increase in the past year, and if this continues it may have a large economic impact.

For example, if there is a large stock market decline in fall of 2005 and associated economic dislocation, then rising oil and energy prices may be key contributing factors.

Re: Peak Oil

Hi wandering1,

Found this today over on another messageboard forum, relating to Peak Oil.   Thought I'd pass it along:


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"Interesting article about an expert in alternative energy found murdered.

Seems as if all experts in alternative energy will end up dead, apparently they stand in the way of what is to come, you all know what I mean the "Peak Oil" situation.

Here is the link:

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-ct--norwichkilling0516may16,0,6929832.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire"

"Life's journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting "Holy shit ... what a ride!"  - Anonymous
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"I get by with a little help from my (higher density) friends."
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3 (edited by wandering1 2004-05-17 16:48:23)

Re: Peak Oil

On the Saturday May 15th edition of Coast to Coast, they opened with an extensive discussion of the murder of Dr. Eugene Mallove.  Dr. Mallove was an expert in the area of leading edge energy technologies.  Art Bell hosted and the guests were Richard Hoagland and David Wilcock.

Richard Hoagland said that he knew Dr. Mallove very well.  Richard Hoagland said that Dr. Mallove had recently mentioned a "major breakthrough"  and then said that the breakthrough was more on the political front than the technological front.  Richard inferred that the breakthrough involved an opportunity to show technology to influential government representatives. 

Richard Hoagland said that he did not think that it was just a coincidence that Dr. Mallove was murdered at this particular point in time.  Dr. Mallove's web site is the following: http://www.infinite-energy.com/

Re: Peak Oil

I don't think I believe in coincidences any more.

Re: Peak Oil

top story on cnn.com:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/18/pf/auto … tm?cnn=yes

Re: Peak Oil

For those willing to get deeper into conventional oil depletion, here is one of the most authoritative sources on the issue:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com

as well as to to the Uppsala University study group on peak oil

http://www.peakoil.net/

Both provide huge amount of data

I'll be back with more next week

Re: Peak Oil

Youri,

Thanks for posting those links!

8 (edited by Cipher 2005-02-10 00:42:15)

Re: Peak Oil

I don't know if this is old news, or a bit more to add to this thread, but here is part of an article from Rense.com - with the full article here: http://www.the7thfire.com/peak_oil/peak … lation.htm

David McGowan wrote:

...'Peak Oil' is an entirely manufactured construct does not mean that the doomsday scenarios painted by the 'Peak' crowd will therefore not become our new reality.  This is not just another scam to further pad the pockets of the oil industry and other financial elites. The stakes are much higher than that. Much higher.

In order to clarify my position on 'Peak Oil,' it would be instructive to briefly review the areas of agreement, and the areas of disagreement, that I have with those who are selling the scam.

The Peakers claim that 'Peak Oil' is the single most important issue that we are facing today. I agree with that assessment (but not because 'Peak Oil' is a valid concept).

The Peakers claim that much of America's military might has been directed in recent years at conquering the key oil and gas producing regions of the world. And that is obviously quite true. Central Asia and Iraq have been seized, Venezuela has suffered through constant meddling by the CIA, the Sudan has been targeted for a future assault, and Saudi Arabia and Iran have been subjected to saber rattling.

But the Peakers also claim that these military ventures have been motivated by America's desire to seize what will soon be the last drops of the world's precious reserves of oil -- and that is entirely untrue.

The Peakers claim that we will very soon be facing a world where chaos reigns supreme -- a world of war, famine and death on a scale unknown in recorded human history. And that does, in fact, appear to be the case. And we're not talking about the distant future here, folks; we're talking about the very near future.

But the Peakers also claim that this global "die off" will be a regrettable, but quite natural, and entirely unavoidable, consequence of the world's oil taps running dry. And that is the really big lie. That is the lie that will very soon be used to rationalize the killing off of hundreds of millions, possibly billions, of the world's people. There are, you see, simply too many people in the world who, by merely being alive, are standing in the way of the aspirations of the global elite.

The people that the 'Peak Oil' pitchmen are fronting for are deadly serious about selling 'Peak Oil' to the masses -- and not just in theoretical terms, as a cynical ploy to raise prices and increase profits. No, it has become clear that the real goal is to actually cut off most of the world's oil supplies under the ruse that the oil simply no longer exists. The desired result is massive social unrest, widespread famine, and endless war. The majority of the world's people will not survive. Those that do will find themselves living under the overtly authoritarian form of rule that will quickly be deemed necessary to restore order. And if you think that we here in America are exempt, you are sadly mistaken.

In order to pull off this stunt, all the world's major oil producing regions must be solidly under the control of the U.S. and it's co-conspirators, otherwise known as 'allies.' In other words, the puppet-masters have to control all the major oil taps, so that they have complete control over the flow of oil -- or lack of it. And that, in a nutshell, is the real reason for America's recent military ventures. The goal, you see, is not to steal Iraq's oil, or the oil in the 'Stans, or in the Sudan, or in Venezuela, or anywhere else. We don't want to take their oil, because the truth is that we don't really need it (http://www.oilandgasreporter.com/storie … ions.shtml). What we want to do is sit on the taps so no one else can get to the oil. ...

Yet another piece of information for me that is tipping the scales on our "wonderful western democratic leaders".  And I use each and every one of those words with speculation and sarcasm. mad

You mean they aren't going to sit on the oil and sell it at a high price and make pots of money?  No.  That would be too simple a scam.  I can just hear them, "Hey, let's sit on all the oil taps in the world and say there's no oil left.  Then, when 80% of the population has died of starvation, what's left will be real easy to control, as they'll be starving and powerless.  But hey, the great part of this scam is we'll step in just at the right moment and once again, they'll think we're the good guys come to save them. Suckers."

Kind of makes hiding an illegal Tesla's tower in the back yard cunningly disguised as a 10 metre palm tree not a bad idea. lol

"And your truth will set you free!" Cipher

"The intuitive mind is a sacred gift.  The rational mind is a faithful servant.  We have created a society which honours the servant but has forgotten the gift." Albert Einstein

Re: Peak Oil

David McGowan wrote:

No, it has become clear that the real goal is to actually cut off most of the world's oil supplies under the ruse that the oil simply no longer exists. The desired result is massive social unrest, widespread famine, and endless war. The majority of the world's people will not survive. Those that do will find themselves living under the overtly authoritarian form of rule that will quickly be deemed necessary to restore order.

That sounds about right to me. They've slowly coaxed us up onto the chair, slipped the noose around our necks, and now all they need to do is kick the chair out from underneath us.

--Justin